The Final Countdown

It's been a while since I've post which you most likely thought that I had given up on my lofty quest. ALAS! You are quite mistaken. I actually only have nine films left as of this morning but haven't had the time/have been watching the movies/been too lazy to post. Mea culpa. Here are some of predictions for the categories that I've finished including how I think the Academy will vote and what I personally think should win:

Best Actor:
Academy and Myself - Is this really a question any more? Daniel Day Lewis will and should trot off the stage on Sunday night with his third statue for Lincoln, a first in Oscar history. Bradley Cooper was great in Silver Linings Playbook and I deeply encourage further non-fratboy acting on his part but DDL was perfection.

Best Supporting Actor:
Academy - This is a tough category but I think that it will go to Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln. Christoph has won more recently so I think they'll hand it to Jones.
Myself - Doesn't mean I agree with that sentiment. I would choose Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained. The role was tailor-made for him and suits him very well. Plus Tommy Lee is a grumpy cat:

Best Documentary Short:
Academy - Inocente is the front-runner in this category. For those who don't feel like reading the synopsis, it deals with a young female artist who is homeless but keeps a generally optimistic outlook on life. The Academy loves their can-do attitudes!
Myself - While I did really like Inocente, I hysterically cried my way through Mondays at Racine, centered around two Long Island women who open up their beauty parlor one day a week to women going through chemotherapy.

Best Animated Short:
Academy and Myself - I would say that Pixar's Paperman has this one in the bag. If you still haven't seen this retro love story, it's still available on Hulu. The only other film that might sneak up on is Adam and Eve, a hand-drawn beauty about Adam's first pet and was made as a side projector from a Disney animator.

Best Live Action Short:
Academy and Myself - Let me start by saying that I think this is the toughest shorts category aka my guess could be completely off base. I've read several articles and I think that everyone has different feelings about the frontrunner. When I first watched the films, I thought Death of a Shadow not only had a unique story but amazing cinematography. That being said, Asad was made with all Somalian refugee cast (which reads as Oscar bait) and Curfew is both lighthearted but deals with extremely complex emotions. Definitely a rough category!

If you would like to completely immerse yourself in Oscar mania, here is Nate Silver's statistical analysis, complements of my lovely math-geek boyfriend, or a supercut of every Best Picture winner in 4 minutes.. Or you can also giggle by checking out which animals the nominees look like. Or the Between Two Ferns: Oscar Buzz Edition Part 1 and Part 2. Or my favorite activity in the whole wide world, make fun of Anne Hathaway.

Be back tomorrow with my final predictions for all the categories and hosting ideas for your party!

43 down, 9 to go!!

Can Twitter predict the Oscars?

I was going to do a Golden Globes recap but I had a crazy work week and moved into NYC! If you want some quick and dirty recaps, see here for how AMAZING Tina and Amy did, here for how awkwardly awesome Jennifer Lawrence is and here for the overall fashion of the night (my favs were Michelle Dockery and Claire Danes).

  

 

While I haven't completed any categories to guess the winners yet, my wonderful boyfriend Ben sent me a very interesting social media find. Topsy's Twitter Oscar Index is using social analytics to predict the winners of the five major categories. You can see the impact of specific days such as the Golden Globes or the Oscar nominations themselves through the timeline and sort by specific films. Looking at the current predictions though, I'm not necessarily sure its accurate but it is an intriguing idea.

18 down, 34 to go!

"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

It's that most wonderful time of year again! The Golden Globes are on Sunday and the Oscar nominations came out on Thursday morning. I will begin once again my feeble attempt to watch all the nominated movies. You and Albert Einstein must be thinking, fat chance but I think, despite my lack of attendance at Telluride this year, I will be victorious. Here is my statistical breakdown of the nominees and what I hope will spell success for me this year:

• When I first looked at the entire list of nominees, it seemed that this year, more than any year prior, a fewer variety of films. It turns out I was right (virtual high five!). There are only 52 different films nominated, including short films, compared to 60 in 2012 and 58 in 2011. This may not seem like much but when each film could mean on average about 2 hours of my time, 6-8 films means 12-14 hours or about five nights of film watching.
• In past years, I saw 11 in 2011 and 19 in 2012 before the nominations came out and started my challenge. This year I've seen 10 so it would seem that I am likely to fare the same as previous years. Wrong again! 
• I'm moving to the Big Apple where I will have access to limited releases and Oscar Shorts' day-long experience of all 15 nominated short films. 
• There are also two films on Netflix streaming and six on DVD already.
• The majority of the films remaining are still in theaters.
• The one caveat and what I find to be most difficult every year without fail are the full-length documentary and foreign film categories. Crossing my fingers that I can find them illegally.

To keep up your excitement for the season, read this hilarious interview with two of my idols and Globes hosts, Tina Fey and Amy Poehler. I worried about having such high expectations for their hosting abilities but after this, they were eased a bit. I'll be tweeting during the show on Sunday night, inputting snarky comments, mostly retweeting those from my friend Kerry. Love to hear everyone's comments on the "booziest" award show!

I'll also be posting about snubs and surprises within the next few days, anyone you were disappointed or delighted to see?

10 down, 42 to go!

"Early Monday morning to Friday at five, Man I work, work, work..."

Being a real person is hard. For those that do not know, I now have a wonderful job in New York City and commute from my humble abode in New Jersey. I travel two hours each way. Regardless to say, when I finally get home the only thing I really think about is going to sleep. Pathetic I know but like I said, it's hard being a real person. Another confession that I have failed my challenge, even more miserably than last year. I got about half way through, watching 30 films. Based on what I have been reading, below are my guesses for tonight's victors. Bold are who I believe will win while italicized will be the one I personally believe should win.

Happy Oscar watching to all and to all a good night!

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Best Directing
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Best Actor
Demián Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Best Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Best Supporting Actress
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Best Original Screenplay
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation

Best Animated Feature
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango

Best Documentary Feature
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated

Best Foreign Language Film
Bullhead (Belgium)
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
A Separation (Iran)

Best Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life War Horse

Best Film Editing
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball

Best Art Direction
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse

Best Costume Design
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.

Best Makeup
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Iron Lady

Best Original Score
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Best Original Song
“Man or Muppet,” The Muppets
“Real in Rio,” Rio

Best Sound Mixing
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

Best Sound Editing
Drive
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

Best Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Best Animated Short Film
Dimanche/Sunday
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life

Best Documentary Short Subject
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
God Is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Best Live-Action Short Film
Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic

"How can I be satisfied when everything's so overrated..."

As I began looking more at my challenge this year, I have begun to believe that it's going to be a little more attainable than last year. I, reluctantly, reissued my Netflix membership only because of this year's nominees ten are already on DVD and two of the documentaries are on the instant option. Last year I also was unaware until it was too late of the option to watch the nominated shorts on iTunes or whenever Shorts International were distributing the shorts to theaters shortly before the ceremonies. I am hoping this will happen again, according to the website this appears to be so.

This year I will be discussing the films by category instead of by individual film and will choose probable winners vs. those that I predict would actually take over the prize. Recently I finished watching Midnight in Paris and The Descendants (overrated, hence the Less Than Jake reference) so I've rounded out quite a few of the categories in the competition already. See below for my reviews.

Best Director

 Should win: Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist- The first time Oscar nominee wowed audiences on the festival circuit this year with his bold take on the silent film genre now nominated ten times. This love note to the films of the past made with wit and humor I was lucky enough to see at Telluride. Hazanavicius's fresh vision has given something that general audiences and cinephiles can both appreciated and that should be appreciated

Will win: Michael Scorcese, Hugo- With his win for The Departed and five other nominations, the Oscar vet seems to have a slight edge in this competition only because he is Scorcese and people within the industry love him. Mea culpas for neglecting him in the past and voters wondering how many more Marty still has in him could also be a factor in his win. Scorcese's 3D win would also vouch for artistic use of the third dimension with other directors and making ticket sales more bankable, something studio heads would love as a result of this year's decreasing sales reports.

Best Original Screenplay

Should win: Asghar Farhadi, A Separation- Another film that I was fortunate about seeing at Telluride this year was this gem of an Iranian film. A foreign film with subtitles coming in at a little over two hours sounds like a good nap time but I was quite shocked by how taken I was with the film. The writing and story plot are suspenseful and keeps you second guessing who to trust within the context of the characters. I was standing ten feet away from Werner Herzog when I heard him tell Farhadi that the film was "the best he'd seen since The Bicycle Thief" so there must be something to this film.

Will win: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris- The man has has 3 Oscar wins (2 for Annie Hall and 1 for Hannah and Her Sisters) but has been nominated 21 times. Let me repeat, TWENTY ONE. My parents hated the film but then again, you have to like Allen in order to understand and love this film. Audiences seemed to like it and the all-star cast are encouraging. Midnight being Allen's highest grossing film to date should snag him the Oscar and ratio of wins to nominations.

Best Editing

Should win and Will win: Thelma Schoonmaker, Hugo- Some of the categories I am not too familiar with the criteria on how they will be judged so for the most part I will be making blind guesses. I'm assuming that Hugo will win based on the fact that it is the only 3D movie on the list. I do think the film is a tad bit too long but the only real competitor would be The Artist.

Best Art Direction

Should win: Stuart Craig and Stephanie McMillian, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2- This is another instance of not knowing too much about the category but I would like to see a win for this film. Craig and McMillian have worked on all of the Harry Potters films and think they deserve something for their fantastic vision. 

Will win: Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo, Hugo- Nominated for nine Oscars with 2 wins, I think Ferretti and Lo Schiavo will take the win on this one. It also helps that the film overall has been nominated a ton.

More to come! 21 down, 39 to go

2012 Oscar Nominations - also known as "what the what?!"

This morning the gorgeous star of the upcoming Hunger Games films, Jennifer Lawrence, announced this year's long awaited 2012 Oscar nominations. There is a ton of backlash and there very well should be. First off, I think the most heinous of all would be the Best Picture nomination for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Rotten Tomatoes currently has this particular film at a 48% rating. Mathematically speaking, that means that a little more than half of the people that saw the film did not like it while the next lowest rated film was The Help at 76%, meaning three out of four people like the film.  It is completely irrational that a film that ranks so low is up for Best Picture of the year especially since the Academy changed their rules the year that gave the ten picks more flexibility. Five percent of the voters must vote for a film in order to be eligible for a Best Picture nomination. Therefore, five percent of people in the Academy are complete dumbasses, excuse my language.

Here are some of the snubs that have been cited over the course of the day by myself and a few other cinephiles.

1. Michael Fassbender in Shame, he showed a lot of... emotion in this film (nudity jokes always welcome!)
2. The Adventures of Tin Tin in the animated category despite the fact that it won the Golden Globe and is really awesome, 
3. Tilda Swinton in We Need To Talk About Kevin being neglected for Rooney Mara in The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (Noomi Rapace did it better, just saying)
4. Ryan Gosling was not recognized for three highly acclaimed roles (Drive, The Ides of March and Crazy, Stupid, Love)
5. I personally would like to say how disappointed I was in the lack of awards the last few years for the Harry Potter series. David Yates did a hell of a job helming the last four films and its a true shame that they never recognized it.
6. Albert Brooks as his dark turn in Drive also has been said to be a snub though I have yet to see the film

I am loving the Octavia Spencer and Melissa McCarthy poopy nominations for Best Supporting Actress as well as the recognition of Demian Bichir in A Better Life which I have yet to see but hear is wonderful. "La Luna" by Pixar is a truly wonderful short as well as the documentary Pina really shows off its 3D chops. I also agreed with giving A Separation a nomination for Original Screenplay.

This year there are 60 films nominated, only 2 more than last year and granted I can count correctly, and I have seen 19 of them including:
The Help, The Artist, Hugo, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, War Horse, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, The Iron Lady, Bridesmaids, Puss in Boots, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2, Anonymous, Jane Eyre, Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory, Pina, A Separation, The Adventures of Tin Tin, La Luna, and Margin Call.

Let it begin!

Golden Glob...zzz.....zzzz....zzzzz

I've waited to write about the Globes because I honestly didn't really know what to think about them this year. Firstly, I was incredibly bored. If they were going to reel in Ricky Gervais that much, they might as well have gotten a different host to make more people angry and thoroughly entertain us, the American public. DANCE MONKEYS DANCE. The most entertaining part of my night was seeing all of the hilarious tweets pop up on my Twitter feed. Shout out to a family friend Kerry for an incredibly laugh out loud series of tweets and text messages (little people jokes not excluded).

Secondly, no sweeps to keep me watching (3 wins for The Artists doesn't quantify as a sweep in my mind) and a lot of super safe bets as winners. I mean, come on, George Clooney? Though I haven't seen The Descendents yet, the buzz at Telluride was very mixed and the reviews are saying the same therefore I also don't understand the Best Drama win. I was also very confused about My Week With Marilyn being classified under the Comedy or Musical category. Seth Rogan even scoffed when announcing Michelle Williams' nomination for in "that hysterical comedy" My Week With Marilyn. As much as I love Marty Scorcese, I don't really think that Hugo should be considered the the Best Director winner either. Michel Hazanavicius or Woody Allen I would closer presume to be contenders in the Oscar race but we shall see in a little over a week.

Now, a small moment to divulge into the fashion. My favorites of the night would have to be Claire Danes, Emma Stone (not so secret girl crushes, thanks to Homeland and Easy A) and Helen Mirren (how I hope to look when I'm her age).

 

Fashion train wrecks? Madonna (ask Helen Mirren for some advice), Jessica Biel (looked like she was wearing my grandma's doily) and Amanda Peet (same as Jessica Biel). I am not even going to disgrace this post by posting the pictures. Check it out if you want to make yourself feel better about yourself.

Nine more days until the nominations! Gotta sign off now. Revenge is about to take over my attention span.